Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and...

In a tractable stochastic volatility model, we identify the price of the smile as the price of the unspanned risks traded in SPX option markets. The price of the smile reflects two persistent volatility and skewness risks, which imply a downward sloping term structure of low-frequency variance...

We study a new class of three-factor affine option pricing models with interdependent volatility dynamics and a stochastic skewness component unrelated to volatility shocks. These properties are useful in order (i) to model a term structure of implied volatility skews more consistent with the...