This study investigates the value of two variance components and variance jumps in the pricing of VIX derivatives. In an attempt to significantly reduce the computational burden, we propose an efficient numerical technique for the pricing of VIX derivatives under the affine framework. Our...

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...

This paper deals with the impact of the $/¿ exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our main aim is to identify "pain thresholds" for German exporters. We rely on a non-linear model according to which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR...

The volatility in a CPG market is modeled using a bottom up simulation approach and validated against disaggregated supermarket transactions data. The simulation uses independent agents, each agent representing unique households in the data. A simple behavioral model incorporates household...

In this paper an in-depth analysis of the estimation of the realized volatility Wishart Autoregressive model is presented. We focus in particular on the estimation of the degrees of freedom. A new estimator is proposed. Monte Carlo simulations show that this novel estimator is more efficient...

Recent advances in natural language processing have contributed to the development of market sentiment measures through text content analysis in news providers and social media. The effectiveness of these sentiment variables depends on the implemented techniques and the type of source on which...

A market recovery model, defined as a jump-diffusion model for the asset price where the jumps and the diffusion are not independent, is proposed. In this model a jump will be triggered when there is an unusually large downward movement over a certain time interval, and the jump size is...

We propose the option realized variance as an observable variable to summarize information from high-frequency option data. This variable aggregates intraday option returns from midquote prices to compute the option's total variability for a given day. Using the S&P 500 index time series and...

We combine the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method with the numerical scheme for the Heston model that simulates the variance process exactly or almost exactly and applies the stochastic trapezoidal rule to approximate the time-integrated variance process within the SDE of the logarithmic asset...

This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...