We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag...

Price spikes are of particular importance due to their severe impacts on consumers, businesses and industry. They constitute a major source of price risk to market participants, e.g., electricity retailers with commitments to meet customers' daily electricity demands. To those trading in several...

When estimating integrated volatilities based on high-frequency data, simplifying assumptions are usually imposed on the relationship between the observation times and the price process. In this paper, we establish a central limit theorem for the Realized Volatility in a general endogenous time...

This paper employs weighted least squares to examine the risk-return relation by applying high-frequency data from four major stock indexes in the US market and finds some evidence in favor of a positive relation between the mean of the excess returns and expected risk. However, by using...

A test for serial independence is proposed which is related to the BDS test but focuses on tail event probabilities rather than probabilities near the center of the distribution. The motivation behind this approach is to obtain a test more suitable for detecting structure in the tails, such as...

In this paper, we provide evidence on two alternative mechanisms of interaction between returns and volatilities: the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and implied volatility, and find that implied...