In discussions and critiques on the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, there are two important research focuses: statistical analyses showing that the basic assumption of statistical independence in price series is violated and empirical findings that show that significant market...

Compared with the market, value, or size factors, momentum has offered investors the highest Sharpe ratio. However, momentum has also had the worst crashes, making the strategy unappealing to investors who dislike negative skewness and kurtosis. We find that the risk of momentum is highly...

High idiosyncratic volatility (IV) stocks follow predictable return pattern after exhibiting large ex ante returns: a period of underreaction and low returns is superseded by persistent high returns. This pattern is robust and economically significant: it may be interpreted as informationally...

This chapter presents an empirical application of Bayesian MCMC estimation to the three main asset pricing models in use in the financial econometrics literature, namely, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Fama-French (1992) three-factor model, and the Carhart (1997) four-factor model...

Three concepts: stochastic discount factors, multi-beta pricing and mean-variance efficiency, are at the core of modern empirical asset pricing. This chapter reviews these paradigms and the relations among them, concentrating on conditional asset-pricing models where lagged variables serve as...

I first show that taking moving averages of the term spread, the dividend yield, and the Shiller’s CAPE, significantly increases their ability to predict one month and 12-month forward equity market excess returns, and the state of the business cycle. Dividend yield, CAPE and term spread are...

We introduce a new class of momentum strategies, the risk-adjusted time series momentum (RAMOM) strategies, which are based on averages of past futures returns, normalized by their volatility. We test these strategies on a universe of 64 liquid futures contracts and show that RAMOM strategies...

This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariance matrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). It is shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systems by means of a two-step strategy. The finite...

This paper studies intraday time-series momentum (ITSM) in an international setting by employing high-frequency data of 16 developed markets. We show that ITSM is economically sizable and statistically significant both in- and out-of-sample in most countries. Based on existing theories of...

We consider two forms of volatility weighting (own volatility and underlying asset volatility) applied to cross-sectional and time-series momentum strategies. We present some simple theoretical results for the Sharpe ratios of weighted strategies and show empirical results for momentum...