We ask whether option prices contain information on the likelihood and direction of jumps in the underlying stock prices. Applying the partial least squares (PLS) approach to the entire surface of the implied volatilities (IV), we show that option prices can successfully predict downward jumps...

In several countries, classical options markets coexist with markets for bank-issued options, also termed warrants. It is an open question if warrant issuers purely adopt options market information about future volatility or if they contribute to volatility discovery by their own. As a result,...

We propose a mean-reverting electricity spot price model of arithmetic jump-diffusion type yielding positive prices. Based on this approach, we derive the corresponding forward and futures price representations. We further discuss different choices for the stochastic mean level process and...

In this paper, we derive a closed-form explicit model-free formula for the (Black-Scholes) implied volatility. The method is based on the novel use of the Dirac Delta function, corresponding delta families, and the change of variable technique. The formula is expressed through either a limit or...

Trillions of dollars of derivatives are trading in many markets regularly, but little is known about the direct interactions between different types of derivatives referencing the same firm. This study is the first to examine the impact of credit derivatives on equity derivatives. We show that...

Financial markets are becoming increasingly event driven. These can take the form of economic releases, speeches and elections. The arrival of this new information often causes the underlying asset to jump. Consequently, the expectation of these known announcements can produce significant...

After the crisis of 2008 that affected the United States, financial analysts began to see stock markets with low confidence due to the lack of fidelity of deterministic models in general. Statistical methods, which use past information to predict the future have always been used. It is a fact...

We seek to reconcile the debate about the price effect of risk-neutral skewness (RNS) on stocks. We document positive predictability from short-term skewness, consistent with informed-trading demand, and negative predictability from long-term skewness, consistent with skewness preference. A term...