A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...

We present a highly mechanical method for the construction of implied volatility surface and implied transition probability density function that satisfies the no arbitrage condition(NAC) under missing data environment. This paper assumes a Dupire's model which is a simple extension of the...

The risky assets prices of the bi-variate model are reviewed under the hegemonize concentration filtered physical probability space. In the stochastic variance of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. The Mean-variance hedging expanse on the Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition is stringent to the...

In this paper we consider several time-varying volatility and/or heavy-tailed models to explain the dynamics of return time series and to fit the volatility smile for exchange-traded options where the underlying is the main ‘Borsa Italiana' stock index. Given observed prices for the time...

We derive robust good-deal hedges and valuations under combined model ambiguity about the drift and volatility of asset prices for incomplete markets. Good-deal valuations are determined such that not just opportunities for arbitrage but also for overly attractive reward-to-risk ratios are...

In this paper, we introduce an extension to the LIBOR Market model that is suitable to incorporate both sudden market shocks as well as changes in the overall economic climate into the interest rate dynamics. This is achieved by substituting the simple diffusion process of the original LIBOR...

In this paper, we examine the evolution of the S&P500 returns volatility around market crashes using a Markov-Switching model. We find that volatility typically switches into the high volatility state well before a crash and remains in the high state for a considerable period of time after the...

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

We analyse the volatility structure of Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar (USD) for the Thai Baht THB, the Philippine Peso PHP, the Indonesian Rupiah IDR and the South Korean Won KRW. Our goal is to check if the characteristics of the volatility dynamics have changed in a K-state switching...