The prices of derivatives contracts can be used to estimate ‘risk-neutral' probability density functions that give an indication of the weight investors place on different future prices of their underlying assets, were they risk-neutral. In the likely case that investors are risk-averse, this...

This paper proposes a risk measure, based on first-passage probability, which reflects intra-horizon risk in jump models with finite or infinite jump activity. Our empirical investigation shows, first, that the proposed risk measure consistently exceeds the benchmark Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second,...

In this paper, I show that the variance of Fama-French factors, the variance of the momentum factor, as well as the correlation between these factors, predict an important fraction of the time-series variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns. This predictability is particularly...

We empirically investigate the functional link between the variance swap rate and the spot variance. Using S&P500 data over the period 2006-2018, we find overwhelming empirical evidence supporting the affine link analytically found by Kallsen et al. (2011) in the context of exponentially affine...

We provide an efficient swaption volatility approximation for longer maturities and tenors, under the lognormal forward-LIBOR model. In particular, we approximate the swaption volatility with a mean update of the spanning forward rates. Since the joint distribution of the forward rates is not...

In this article, the Universal Approximation Theorem of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is applied to the SABR stochastic volatility model in order to construct highly efficient representations. Initially, the SABR approximation of Hagan et al. [2002] is considered, then a more accurate...

Affine jump diffusion models in general and affine stochastic volatility models in particular are important modeling tools in finance. Their popularity resides in their exibility coupled with their analytical tractability, especially with respect to characteristic functions and polynomial...

The standard shifted lognormal model, defined by just two parameters, provides a remarkably good fit to the market implied volatilities of VIX options.Inspired by an analytic approximation derived by Lee and Wang, we propose a simple, intuitive extension that provides better empirical fits while...