We highlight a state variable misspecification with one accepted method to implement stochastic volatility (SV) in DSGE models when transforming the nonlinear state-innovation dynamics to its linear representation. Although the technique is more efficient numerically, we show that it is not...

We propose a moving average stochastic volatility in mean model and a moving average stochastic volatility model with leverage. For parameter estimation, we develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and illustrate our methods, using simulated data and a real data set. We compare the...

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models are very flexible in capturing gradual changes in the effect of explanatory variables on the outcome variable. However, in particular when the number of explanatory variables is large, there is a known risk of overfitting and poor predictive performance, since...