While the risk return trade-off theory suggests a positive relationship between the expected return and the conditional volatility, the volatility feedback theory implies a channel that allows the conditional volatility to negatively affect the expected return. We examine the effects of the risk...

While the risk return trade-off theory suggests a positive relationship between the expected return and the conditional volatility, the volatility feedback theory implies a channel that allows the conditional volatility to negatively affect the expected return. We examine the effects of the risk...

Money laundering has become a global threat to the international stability and security, leading both to economic and social upheavals, and to an increase in terrorist threats. Therefore, an objective necessity arises for a more detailed study of the money laundering within the scope of its...

This paper extends the popular Diebold-Mariano test to situations when the forecast error loss differential exhibits long memory. It is shown that this situation can arise frequently, since long memory can be transmitted from forecasts and the forecast objective to forecast error loss...

Conditional heteroskedasticity is an important feature of many macroeconomic and financial time series. Standard residual-based bootstrap procedures for dynamic regression models treat the regression error as i.i.d. These procedures are invalid in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity....

We provide a new framework for modeling trends and periodic patterns in high-frequency financial data. Seeking adaptivity to ever-changing market conditions, we enlarge the Fourier flexible form into a richer functional class: both our smooth trend and the seasonality are non-parametrically...

This paper features an analysis of the cointegration relationships among agricultural commodity, ethanol and Cushing crude oil spot and futures prices. The use of grains for the creation of bio-fuels has sparked fears that these demands are inflating food prices. We analyse approximately 10...

We investigate the information theoretic optimality properties of the score function of the predictive likelihood as a device to update parameters in observation driven time-varying parameter models. The results provide a new theoretical justification for the class of generalized autoregressive...

Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method...