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strategies on long-term interest rates - a key fiscal indicator reflecting the costs of government debt service. A government … confronted with high deficits and rising debt will sooner or later need to enact fiscal adjustments in order to avoid solvency … if they were successful and led to lower deficits and debt levels. Instead, financial markets only seem to value strict …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008807633
In this paper, we study the impact of fiscal rules, in the form of explicit deficit or debt constraints, on fiscal … volatility, but depending on the target of the rule - public debt or fiscal balance - rules will increase or decrease policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130098
, is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations that could affect the value of public debt to GDP ratios over time. This paper …-due to intra-year exchange rate fluctuations-that affects public debt accumulation. Importantly, the inclusion of this often …-ignored stock-flow adjustment term is critical to accurately project public debt levels and any related indicator that could in turn …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250098
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054782
An n-variable structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) can be identified (up to shock order) from the evolution of the residual covariance across time if the structural shocks exhibit heteroskedasticity (Rigobon (2003), Sentana and Fiorentini (2001)). However, the path of residual covariances...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897737
We introduce imperfect information in stock prices determination. Agents receive a noisy signal about the structural shock driving future dividend variations. Equilibrium stock prices include a transitory "noise bubble" which can be responsible for boom and bust episodes unrelated to economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043876
This study investigates the impacts of public expenditure innovations on exchange rate volatility in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1970-2019. To achieve this objective, a version of the vector autoregressive impulse response model proposed by Jordà is employed and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012509885
This paper analyses the effects of fiscal shocks using a two-country macroeconomic model for output, labour input, government spending and relative prices which provides the orthogonality restrictions for obtaining the structural shocks. Dynamic simulation techniques are then applied, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316574
An n-variable structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) can be identified (up to shock order) from the evolution of the residual covariance across time if the structural shocks exhibit heteroskedasticity (Rigobon (2003), Sentana and Fiorentini (2001)). However, the path of residual covariances is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011926201
When in proxy-SVARs the covariance matrix of VAR disturbances is subject to exogenous, permanent, nonrecurring breaks that generate target impulse response functions (IRFs) that change across volatility regimes, even strong, exogenous external instruments can result in inconsistent estimates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014495778