In this paper we document that at the aggregate stock market level the unexpected volatility is negatively related to expected future returns and positively related to future volatility. We demonstrate how the predictive ability of unexpected volatility can be utilized in dynamic asset...

This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariance matrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). It is shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systems by means of a two-step strategy. The finite...

This paper addresses the open debate about the usefulness of high-frequency (HF) data in large-scale portfolio allocation. We consider the problem of constructing global minimum variance portfolios based on the constituents of the S&P 500 over a four-year period covering the 2008 financial...

We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

A new multivariate time series model with various attractive properties is motivated and studied. By extending the CCC model in several ways, it allows for all the primary stylized facts of financial asset returns, including volatility clustering, non-normality (excess kurtosis and asymmetry),...

We propose a new method (implemented in an R-program) to simulate long-range daily stock-price data. The program reproduces various stylized facts much better than various parametric models from the extended GARCH-family. In particular, the empirically observed changes in unconditional variance...

A novel dynamic asset-allocation approach is proposed where portfolios as well as portfolio strategies are updated at every decision period based on their past performance. For modeling, a general class of models is specified that combines a dynamic factor and a vector autoregressive model and...

This paper evaluates the economic gains associated with following a volatility timing strategy based on a multivariate model of realized volatility. To study this issue we build a high frequency database with the most actively traded Brazilian stocks. Comparing with traditional volatility...

A fast method is developed for value-at-risk and expected shortfall prediction for univariate asset return time series exhibiting leptokurtosis, asymmetry and conditional heteroskedasticity. It is based on a GARCH-type process driven by noncentral t innovations. While the method involves the use...

The article focuses on forecasting idiosyncratic hedge fund return volatility using a non-linear Markov switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) framework in which the conditional mean and volatility of systematic and idiosyncratic hedge fund return components may exhibit dynamic Markov switching behaviour....