U.S. ethanol policies have contributed to changes in the levels and the volatilities of revenues and costs facing ethanol firms. The implications of these policies for optimal investment behavior are investigated through an extension of the real options framework that allows for the...

We apply utility indifference pricing to solve a contingent claim problem, valuing a connected pair of gas fields where the underlying process is not standard Geometric Brownian motion and the assumption of complete markets is not fulfilled. First, empirical data are often characterized by...

This paper presents implied volatility smiles and skews for plain vanilla electricity options based on a new bid stack model developed in a previous paper. This underlying bid stack model for the electricity market is extended to the case of an arbitrary number N of technology classes embedded...

In the first years after the emergence of deregulated power markets it became apparent that for the valuation of electricity derivatives we cannot simply rely on models developed for financial or other commodity markets. However, before adequate models can be put forward the unique...

Trading in commodity derivatives on exchange platforms is an instrument to achieve price discovery, better price risk management, besides helping macro-economy with better resource allocation. Since the inception (2003) of national online trading on multi-commodity exchange platforms, the trade...

This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of...

In this paper, we forecast energy market volatility using both univariate and multivariate GARCH-class models. First, we forecast volatilities of individual assets and find that multivariate models display better performance than univariate models. Second, we forecast crack spread volatility and...

We propose a comprehensive treatment of the leverage effect, i.e. the relationship between returns and volatility of a specific asset, focusing on energy commodities futures, namely Brent and WTI crude oils, natural gas and heating oil. After estimating the volatility process without assuming...

Trading in commodity derivatives on exchange platforms is an instrument to achieve price discovery, better price risk management, besides helping macro-economy with better resource allocation. Since the inception (2003) of national online trading on multi-commodity exchange platforms, the trade...

This study seeks to explain why crude oil prices fluctuate, the main cause being the quota regime, which characterises the OPEC agreements. Given that the Saudi oil supply is inelastic in the short term, a shock in the oil market is accommodated by an immediate price change. In contrast, a...