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If agents are ambiguity-averse and can invest in productive assets, asset prices can robustly exhibit indeterminacy in … the markets that open after the productive investment has been launched. For indeterminacy to occur, the aggregate supply … systematically. That indeterminacy arises only at a knife-edge set of aggregate supplies allows for a simple explanation of the …
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This paper identifies America's first Great Moderation, a period from 1841-1856 of unbroken economic expansion and low volatility comparable to the Great Moderation of the 1980s-2000s. This moderation occurred despite a lack of central banks, low governmental spending, and barriers to interstate...
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This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas anticipation amplifies volatility in any purely forward-looking model, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, the results are ambiguous when including a backward-looking component. In addition to these...
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