Showing 1 - 10 of 1,615
forecasting accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459503
Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note is among the most cited interest rates by investors, policymakers, and fnancial institutions. We show that the 10-year Treasury yield's forward-looking volatility, a VIX-style measure that is a proxy for uncertainty about future interest rates, is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014530189
large number of forecasting models have been designed to forecast crude oil prices' volatility, so far the relative … performance evaluation of competing forecasting models remains an exercise that is unidimensional in nature. To be more specific …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010571716
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767001
The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the … forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477100
This paper proposes a new class of multivariate volatility model that utilising high-frequency data. We call this model the DCC-HEAVY model as key ingredients are the Engle (2002) DCC model and Shephard and Sheppard (2012) HEAVY model. We discuss the models' dynamics and highlight their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009351
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
volatility information improves the day volatility estimation. The results indicate a forecasting improvement using bivariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160811
usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213172