This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky‐information...

In this paper we provide a unified methodology for conducting likelihood-based inference on the unknown parameters of a general class of discrete-time stochastic volatility (SV) models, characterized by both a leverage effect and jumps in returns. Given the nonlinear/non-Gaussian state-space...

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...

The volatility of 19 agricultural commodity prices are examined at monthly and annual frequencies. All of the price series are found to exhibit persistent volatility (periods of relatively high and low volatility). There is also strong evidence of transmission of volatilities across prices....

We revisit Wintenberger (2013) on the continuous invertibility of the EGARCH(1,1) model. We note that the definition of continuous invertibility adopted in Wintenberger (2013) may not always be sufficient to deliver strong consistency of the QMLE. We also take the opportunity to provide other...

This paper analyses the informational role of the trading activity when jumps occur in the US Treasury market. As jumps mark the arrival of new information to the market, we explore the contribution of jumps in reducing the informational asymmetry. We identify jumps using a combination of jump...

Evolving volatility is a dominant feature observed in most financial time series and a key parameter used in option pricing and many other financial risk analyses. A number of methods for non-parametric scale estimation are reviewed and assessed with regard to the stylized features of financial...

We propose a number of volatility measures that are based on ensemble averaging instead of time averaging. These measures allow fast measurement of current volatility without relying on series of past data (realized volatility) of future expectations (implied volatility). The introduced...