We emphasize the role of news-based economic policy and equity market uncertainty indices as robust drivers of oil price fluctuations. In that, we utilizea new hybrid nonparametric quantile causality methodology in order to investigate whether EPU and EMU uncertainty measures incorporate...

For forecasting volatility of futures returns, the paper proposes an indirect method based on the relationship between futures and the underlying asset for the returns and time-varying volatility. For volatility forecasting, the paper considers the stochastic volatility model with asymmetry and...

We use an impulse response methodology to analyse the effects of U.S. macroeconomic news announcements on the volatilities of three major exchange rates (Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen). Our data consist of 5 minute returns on exchange rates as well as the times of news announcements. In the...

The ARCH model shares with the related literature on risk and return one common thing: the rational-expectation paradigm. In particularly, market prices should reflect investors' rational forecasts, based on the best available information. When new information arrives, the market's expectations...

The paper investigates the extent to which the dollar/sterling exchange rate fluctuations affect coffee and cocoa futures prices on the London LIFFE and the New York CSCE by means of multivariate GARCH models - under the assumption that traders in perfectly competitive markets have equal access...

Futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange are the most liquid instruments for trading crude oil, which is the world’s most actively traded physical commodity. Under normal market conditions, traders can easily find counterparties for their trades, resulting in an efficient market...

The aim of this paper is twofold. First it aims to compare several GARCH family models in order to model and forecast the conditional variance of German, Swiss, and UK stock market indexes. The main result is that all GARCH family models show evidence of asymmetric effects. Based on the “out...

We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B-splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B-spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework...

The returns of many financial assets show significant skewness, but in the literature this issue is only marginally dealt with. Our conjecture is that this distributional asymmetry may be due to two different dynamics in positive and negative returns. In this paper we propose a process that...

A large number of parameterizations have been proposed to model conditional variance dynamics in a multivariate framework. However, little is known about the ranking of multivariate volatility models in terms of their forecasting ability. The ranking of multivariate volatility models is...