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This paper applies ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL models to long-term inflation targeting policy mechanisms in the United … States and China to assess the impact of oil price dynamics and asymmetries on inflation expectations in the two countries … changes on inflation expectations, and further provide a theoretical basis for the empirical results. We use data from 2010 to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289383
The federal funds rate became uninformative about the stance of monetary policy from December 2008 to November 2015. During the same period, unconventional monetary policy actions, like large-scale asset purchases, show the Federal Reserve's intention to depress longer-term interest rates. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847528
In a seminal study Hodrick et al. (1991) evaluate the ability of a simple cash-credit model to produce realistic variability in consumption velocity while at the same time successfully explaining other key statistics. Sufficient variability in the latter is found to be associated with far too...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003799523
We investigate the source of the high persistence in the Federal Funds Rate relative to the predictions of simple Taylor rules. While much of the literature assumes that this reflects interest-smoothing on the part of monetary policy-makers, an alternative explanation is that it represents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131581
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014303987
Why is inflation so much lower and at the same time more stable in developed economies in the 1990s, compared with the … inflation equilibrium. Our argument builds on the story proposed by Tom Sargent in "The Conquest of American Inflation," where … the fall in inflation in the 1980s was attributed to the changing beliefs informing monetary policy. To explain the escape …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014224729
In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than … in hte high inflation regime, while the Swedish and the U.K. cases suggest that unemployment variability is higher in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584800
aggressive monetary policies which results in less inflation volatility and persistence. We find this pattern emerges strongly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088615
volatility turns out to be positive, and there is no important relationship between inflation and volatility. The main policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014062178
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002380636