This paper examines the one-step prediction of financial time series from a binary decision theory perspective. Under the assumption that the decision statistic of the binary hypothesis testing problem is a Gaussian random variable, bounds for the forecasting efficiency of the hypothesis testing...

This paper investigates the behaviour of the volatility of returns in bond and stock markets for a sample of eight countries using very long samples of data. Volatility has been high during episodes of economic and political turbulence, in particular during the interwar period. Moreover,...