Measures of economic uncertainty are countercyclical, but economic theory does not provide definite guidance on the … direction of causation between uncertainty and the business cycle. This paper proposes a new multi-country approach to the … analysis of the interaction between uncertainty and economic activity, without a priori restricting the direction of causality …

quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to … slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic … common factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions, we …

quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets … volatility and economic activity assuming that both variables are driven by the same set of unobserved common factors and that … these factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions, the …

Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility …1. We account for sam-ple uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly … observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …