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Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010410031
very challenging, if not impossible. In this paper, we apply a battery of linear and nonlinear models to forecast the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138023
-rich forecast methodology to handle a large set of potential predictors in a Bayesian Model Averaging approach, and, second, we take …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115338
robust across several dimensions, including: time period, forecast horizon, moneyness, and model specification …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097543
-rich forecast methodology to handle a large set of potential predictors in a Bayesian Model Averaging approach, and, second, we take …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066491
-regression integrated moving average as a reliable model forecast for future pricing of the volatile assets. However, the current model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835628
In this article, the Universal Approximation Theorem of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is applied to the SABR stochastic volatility model in order to construct highly efficient representations. Initially, the SABR approximation of Hagan et al. [2002] is considered, then a more accurate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907596
The accurate forecast of the foreign currencies exchange rates at the ultra high frequency electronic trading in the … markets in Asia, Europe and North America; 2) the research review on the classic forecast techniques of the foreign currencies … quantum forecast techniques of the foreign currencies exchange rates dynamics in the foreign currencies exchange markets with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013057
risk preference factor. We investigate whether these factors perform better to forecast realized volatility if constructed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851207
The risk premium of stocks due to priced variance risk is summarized to two variables -- the stock-specific price of variance risk (the difference between realized and option-implied variance) and the quantity (i.e., how stock prices respond to their variance shocks) of variance risk....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855216