Showing 1 - 10 of 3,096
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
developments on global food markets have increased food price volatility, which puts in particular low income households at risk …. When small-scale farmers allocate their labour time over different income generating activities, they face the risk of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014139155
volatility as having its own stochastic process, broadens the applications into derivative pricing purposes, risk assessment and … reports risk and portfolio measures, extracts conditional one-step-ahead moments (smoothing), forecast one … volatility. Observed market prices and implied volatilities establish market risk premiums. The analysis adds insight and enables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050714
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014356167
March 2020 packed 2 ½ years of normal U.S. stock market volatility into one month, making it the most volatile month on record. Daily variability clocked in at 6%, six times higher than the average over the past 90 years. How should an investor respond to such volatility? In this article we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832242
This paper treats the risk-averse optimal portfolio problem with consumption in continuous time for a stochastic … the stock-fraction due to vanishing volatility. Main modifications for the usual constant relative risk aversion (CRRA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123110
and exposure to market risk. As an example we simulate the optimal acquisition of two correlated assets and compare it to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045375
overconfident about the signal. We find that, because overconfident traders introduce an additional source of risk, rational … bonds are an essential accompaniment of equity investment, as they serve to hedge this sentiment risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003961073
The relationship between risk and return is one of the most studied topics in finance. The majority of the literature …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010365633
This paper proposes a multivariate stochastic volatility-in-vector autoregression model called the conditional autoregressive inverse Wishart-in-VAR (CAIW-in-VAR) model as a framework for studying the real effects of uncertainty shocks. We make three contributions to the literature. First, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500382