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In assessing drivers of commodity prices and volatility at this stage of the current super-cycle in commodities (year 12 of a projected 25), it is vital to understand that production cost is a fundamental. Moreover, marginal production costs are among the most powerful drivers of commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120803
The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146503
We study the effects of dispersion of investors' beliefs and dispersion of belief changes on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables affect marketwide trading volume. These macro variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013146663
We develop a theory of equilibrium market volatility in a general equilibrium duopoly with complete information. The resulting economic system possesses a property, which can be described as ‘natural volatility' of markets, even if players have complete information.Economy is described as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895422
In this paper, we add new evidence to a long-debated macroeconomic question, namely whether money growth has predictive power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233967
Deribit exchange offers about 90\% open interest in the recent cryptocurrency options market. The dominating type of options listed in Deribit is the inverse BTC option, which is settled in BTC and thus allows professional traders to avoid frequent convert between cryptocurrency and fiat...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235955
Bitcoin (BTC) has attracted a plethora of investors and professional traders and becomes an almost inevitable asset class in today's financial markets. Deribit, the largest exchange for crypto options, offers European-typed inverse options, which target to BTC in USD but have payoff denominated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239341
We study the impact of different central bank communication practices on the trading behavior and profitability of fast and slow traders in the foreign exchange market. We focus, in particular, on how the Bank of Japan's practice of introducing some randomness to the time at which it releases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247078
The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971298
We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and 'data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380421