In assessing drivers of commodity prices and volatility at this stage of the current super-cycle in commodities (year 12 of a projected 25), it is vital to understand that production cost is a fundamental. Moreover, marginal production costs are among the most powerful drivers of commodity...

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...

We study the effects of dispersion of investors' beliefs and dispersion of belief changes on stock trading volume. Unlike most of the existing work on the subject, our paper focuses on how investors' disagreements on macroeconomic variables affect marketwide trading volume. These macro variables...

We develop a theory of equilibrium market volatility in a general equilibrium duopoly with complete information. The resulting economic system possesses a property, which can be described as ‘natural volatility' of markets, even if players have complete information.Economy is described as a...

In this paper, we add new evidence to a long-debated macroeconomic question, namely whether money growth has predictive power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and...

Deribit exchange offers about 90\% open interest in the recent cryptocurrency options market. The dominating type of options listed in Deribit is the inverse BTC option, which is settled in BTC and thus allows professional traders to avoid frequent convert between cryptocurrency and fiat...

Bitcoin (BTC) has attracted a plethora of investors and professional traders and becomes an almost inevitable asset class in today's financial markets. Deribit, the largest exchange for crypto options, offers European-typed inverse options, which target to BTC in USD but have payoff denominated...

We study the impact of different central bank communication practices on the trading behavior and profitability of fast and slow traders in the foreign exchange market. We focus, in particular, on how the Bank of Japan's practice of introducing some randomness to the time at which it releases...

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...

We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and 'data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data...