The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and Frey (2000) where we permit a time-varying...

We study the differential impact of exchange rate volatility on cost efficiency and market structure when banks have non-trivial exposures to foreign currency operations. We use unique pre-war data on quarterly revaluations of assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies that Russian...

We study the differential impact of exchange rate volatility on cost efficiency and market structure when banks have non-trivial exposures to foreign currency operations. First, we document that cost efficiency estimates are both severely downward biased by 30% on average and generally not rank...