Indonesia and Thailand, two major open economies in Southeast Asia operating under managed-float exchange rate systems, have remained susceptible to both external and domestic shocks since the East-Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. This paper investigates the transmission of external...

We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the...

This paper investigates the causal relationship between economic policy narratives, derived from President Trump's tweets and tweeting behavior, and stock market uncertainty. To this end, I define different event types based on the occurrence probability of identifted narratives or unusual tweet...