"After decades of trial, error, and occasional regress the pieces of a successful Latin American economic model can be seen scattered among the leading economies of the region. The most traditional macroeconomic maladies of the emerging world - such as chronic fiscal imbalances and monetary...

This paper investigates the empirical association between stock market volatility and investor mood-proxies related to the weather (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation) and the environment (nighttime length). Overall, our results suggest that cloudiness and length of nighttime are...

The paper aims to suggest the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. The findings of this paper support the superiority of high frequency based volatility forecasting models over traditional GARCH models. MIDAS and HAR-RV-CJ models are found to be the best among high...

This paper presents a GARCH type volatility model with a time-varying unconditional volatility which is a function of macroeconomic information. It is an extension of the SPLINE GARCH model proposed by Engle and Rangel (2005). The advantage of the model proposed in this paper is that the...

A well developed literature exists in relation to modeling and forecasting asset return volatility. Much of this relate to the development of time series models of volatility. This paper proposes an alternative method for forecasting volatility that does not involve such a model. Under this...

The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of stock price indices in periods of booms with those in periods of stagnations. We use the daily data of the four stock price indices in the major stock markets in the world: (i) the Nikkei 225 index (Nikkei 225) from January 4, 1975 to...

We consider two multivariate long-memory ARCH models, which extend the univariate long-memory ARCH models, we first consider a long-memory extension of the restricted constant conditional correlations (CCC) model introduced by Bollerslev (1990), and we propose a new unrestricted conditional...

The basic theory of price formation tells us how the price of a particular asset will change based on the adjustment to its supply and demand. However, values of assets are also determined by other business fundamentals, company's and world events, human psychology, and investors' belief about...

It is generally believed that excessive stock market volatility reflects non-mathematical market expectations that are driven by “irrational exuberance” or “animal spirits”. As shown in this paper, there is an alternative explanation. If ex-ante and ex-post expectations are calculated in...

Firm Profitability - Does it really matter for shareholder return or ROE (return on equity)? Does this question sound oxymoron and antithetic? Not really. On the contrary, evidence has surfaced that Returns on equity - based on the shareholders' equity accounted in the balance sheet - is not...