Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and...

An "explosion moment" is a large movement in the market that can be caused by fundamental changes or the normal dynamic of some assets. These movements can be difficult to navigate and can lead to poor investment decisions. There are two types of events that can cause explosion moments:...

In this paper, we provide evidence on two alternative mechanisms of interaction between returns and volatilities: the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and implied volatility, and find that implied...

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005)...

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless,...

We present a new heteroskedastic conditional variance model using NonLinear Moving Average as the basis for this specification [NLMACH(q)]. The typical problem of this class of models-i.e., noninvertibility—is solved by means of an intuitive parametric restriction; this allows us to use...

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model (Engle 1982a), an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged. Despite numerous succesful developments, several studies seem to show their performance is not always satisfactory see Boulier (1994). In...

This paper presents a GARCH type volatility model with a time-varying unconditional volatility which is a function of macroeconomic information. It is an extension of the SPLINE GARCH model proposed by Engle and Rangel (2005). The advantage of the model proposed in this paper is that the...

We investigate the information theoretic optimality properties of the score function of the predictive likelihood as a device to update parameters in observation driven time-varying parameter models. The results provide a new theoretical justification for the class of generalized autoregressive...

This study assesses the influence of error distributional assumption on appearance or disappearance of day-of-the-week effects in returns and volatility using the Nigerian stock exchange (NSE-30). The Gaussian, Student-t, and the Generalized error distribution were incorporated in the GARCH...