Using the Tsay (1988) outlier identification methodology on daily log-returns of 16 commodity spot price series and 25 commodity index series, this study assesses the impact significant and unexpected news announcements had on volatility between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2007. Results...

In the paper, we research on the presence of long-range dependence in returns and volatility of BUX, PX and WIG between years 1997 and 2009 with use of classical and modified rescaled range. Moving block bootstrap with pre-whitening and postblackening is used for the construction of confidence...

Hawkes Processes have been finding more applications in diverse areas of science, engineering and quantitative finance. In multi-frequency finance, various phenomena have been observed, such as shocks, crashes, volatility clustering, turbulent flows and contagion. Hawkes processes have been...

Estimating volatility from recent high frequency data, we revisit the question of the smoothness of the volatility process. Our main result is that log-volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent H of order 0.1, at any reasonable time scale. This leads us...

We perform a historical analysis of selected rough volatility models to the SPX market. Tailoring the neural network pricing method of [27] to our needs, we train neural networks for the rough Heston model from [14], the rough Bergomi model from [4] as well as an extended version of the latter....

In previous Peregrine Securities work, it was shown that currency hedge selection can be approached in an optimization framework and that the particular choice of hedge is strongly dependent on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign asset. Unfortunately, correlations between...

In this report we study South African implied volatility from three different perspectives. Firstly, we conduct an analysis of the historical Top40 Index implied volatility surface dynamics. In particular, we consider the regime-dependence of atm volatility and skew levels and how this...

Contemporary actuarial and accounting practices (APN 110 in the South African context) require the use of market-consistent models for the valuation of embedded investment derivatives. These models have to be calibrated with accurate and up-to-date market data. Arguably, the most important...

This paper introduces a general class of combined neural network-GARCH models suitable to financial time series analysis. We put special emphasis on designing a full model-building cycle for this class of models that includes all stages of econometric modelling (specification, estimation and...

The present paper analyzes the forecastability and tradability of volatility on the large S&P500 index and the liquid SPY ETF, VIX index and VXX ETN. Even though there is already a huge array of literature on forecasting high frequency volatility, most publications only evaluate the forecast in...