This paper investigates international index return predictability using option-implied information. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Foster-Hart risk (FH), and higher-order moments for horizons ranging from 1 to 250 days. Our results from...

This paper presents a new formalism to price European options in all asset classes that fits the market data remarkably well. We use a model-independent representation of European Option prices as path integrals over all of the underlying asset price from inception to maturity. The no arbitrage...

This article presents a Markov chain framework to characterize the behavior of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX index). Two possible regimes are considered: high volatility and low volatility. The specification accounts for deviations from normality and the existence of persistence in the...

In this paper, I show that the variance of Fama-French factors, the variance of the momentum factor, as well as the correlation between these factors, predict an important fraction of the time-series variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns. This predictability is particularly...

Stock market volatility clusters in time, appears fractionally integrated, carries a risk premium, and exhibits asymmetric leverage effects relative to returns. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined by the difference between the risk-neutral and objective expectations of the...

This paper finds substantial risk diversification potential between certain commodity groups and stocks by exploring the dependence between their patterns of regime switching. None of the commodity groups share a common volatility regime with stocks, nor are the regime switching patterns of...

There has been substantial research effort aimed to forecast futures price return volatilities of financial and commodity assets. Some part of this research focuses on the performance of time-series models (in particular ARCH models) versus option implied volatility models. A significant part of...

This paper investigates international index return predictability using daily-updated option-implied information in predictive regressions and out-of-sample forecasts. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Generalized Riskiness (GR), and higher-order...

We derive valuation formulas for caps and floors on backward-looking term rates in the Black-1976, Bachelier and Hull-White-1-Factor models explicitly regarding valuation in the fixing period, extending and detailing results of [Lyashenko & Mercurio 2019, Henrard 2019, Turfus 2020]. These...

The VIX index is not only a volatility index but also a polynomial combination of all possible higher moments in market return distribution under the risk-neutral measure. This paper formulates the VIX as a linear decomposition of four fundamentally different elements: the realized variance...