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This paper investigates international index return predictability using option-implied information. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Foster-Hart risk (FH), and higher-order moments for horizons ranging from 1 to 250 days. Our results from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112697
This paper presents a new formalism to price European options in all asset classes that fits the market data remarkably well. We use a model-independent representation of European Option prices as path integrals over all of the underlying asset price from inception to maturity. The no arbitrage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914760
This article presents a Markov chain framework to characterize the behavior of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX index). Two possible regimes are considered: high volatility and low volatility. The specification accounts for deviations from normality and the existence of persistence in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114113
In this paper, I show that the variance of Fama-French factors, the variance of the momentum factor, as well as the correlation between these factors, predict an important fraction of the time-series variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns. This predictability is particularly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150662
Stock market volatility clusters in time, appears fractionally integrated, carries a risk premium, and exhibits asymmetric leverage effects relative to returns. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined by the difference between the risk-neutral and objective expectations of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014190565
This paper finds substantial risk diversification potential between certain commodity groups and stocks by exploring the dependence between their patterns of regime switching. None of the commodity groups share a common volatility regime with stocks, nor are the regime switching patterns of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037864
There has been substantial research effort aimed to forecast futures price return volatilities of financial and commodity assets. Some part of this research focuses on the performance of time-series models (in particular ARCH models) versus option implied volatility models. A significant part of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014068854
This paper investigates international index return predictability using daily-updated option-implied information in predictive regressions and out-of-sample forecasts. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Generalized Riskiness (GR), and higher-order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853217
We derive valuation formulas for caps and floors on backward-looking term rates in the Black-1976, Bachelier and Hull-White-1-Factor models explicitly regarding valuation in the fixing period, extending and detailing results of [Lyashenko & Mercurio 2019, Henrard 2019, Turfus 2020]. These...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834974
The VIX index is not only a volatility index but also a polynomial combination of all possible higher moments in market return distribution under the risk-neutral measure. This paper formulates the VIX as a linear decomposition of four fundamentally different elements: the realized variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855651