We show that at-the-money implied volatility of options on futures of 5-year Treasury notes (Treasury ‘yield implied volatility') predicts both the growth rate and volatility of gross domestic product, as well as of other macroeconomic variables, like industrial production, consumption, and...

The on-the-run phenomenon is regularly found in the bond markets. The on-the-run phenomenon is the yield difference observed when a new bond issue comes to market from the same issuer and gets a better price (lower yield given equivalent duration) from the market than the older issue. This paper...

"We investigate whether bonds span the volatility risk in the U.S. Treasury market, as predicted by most 'affine' term structure models. To this end, we construct powerful and model-free empirical measures of the quadratic yield variation for a cross-section of fixed- maturity zero-coupon bonds...