This paper examines the relationship between volatility and the probability of occurrence of expected extreme returns in the Canadian market. Four measures of volatility are examined: implied volatility from firm option prices, conditional volatility calculated using an EGARCH model,...

Weekly, quarterly and yearly risk measures are crucial for risk reporting according to Basel III and Solvency II. For the respective data frequencies, the authors show in a simulation and back-test study that available data series are not sufficient in order to estimate Value at Risk and...

We estimate real consumption's growth rate and volatility in light of three new facts documenting geographic differences in consumption: (1) consumers in separate markets buy different products, (2) a product's market share varies geographically conditional on relative price, and (3) product...