In this paper, we study the methods of combining different volatility forecasts using various GARCH models. Given that the major risk exposure for many investors in energy is the volatility of the electricity price, our motivation stems from the fact that there is no single best model for...

We study the performance of different regulatory approaches for the expansion of electricity transmission networks in the light of realistic demand patterns and fluctuating wind power. In particular, we are interested in the relative performance of a combined merchant-regulatory mechanism...

We introduce extensions of the Realized Exponential GARCH model (REGARCH) that capture the evident high persistence typically observed in measures of financial market volatility in a tractable fashion. The extensions decompose conditional variance into a short-term and a long-term component. The...

We construct a network volatility index (NetVIX) via market interconnectedness and volatilities to measure global market turbulence. The NetVIX multiplicatively decomposes into an average volatility and a network amplifier index. It also additively decomposes into marginal volatility indices for...

We propose a novel stochastic volatility model with price and volatility co-jumps driven by Hawkes processes and develop a feasible maximum-likelihood based procedure to estimate the parameters driving the jump intensity. Using S&P500 high-frequency prices over the period May 2007 - August 2021,...

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends the linear nonnegative autoregressive model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) and Nielsen and Shephard (2003) by way of a power transformation. It is...

This paper presents implied volatility smiles and skews for plain vanilla electricity options based on a new bid stack model developed in a previous paper. This underlying bid stack model for the electricity market is extended to the case of an arbitrary number N of technology classes embedded...

The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the joint behavior of prices in interconnected markets. In this paper we propose a regime-switching AR-GARCH copula...

Restricted participation in sequential markets may cause high price volatility and welfare losses. In this paper we therefore analyze the drivers of restricted participation in the German intraday auctin which is a short-term electricity market with quarter-hourly products. Applying a...