We investigate whether machine learning techniques and a large set of financial and macroeconomic variables can be used to predict future S&P realized volatility. We evaluate the aggregate volatility predictions of regularization methods (Ridge, Lasso, and Elastic Net), tree-based methods...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Motivated by increment process modeling for two correlated random and non-random systems from a discrete-time asset pricing with both risk free asset and risky security, we propose a class of semiparametric regressions for a combination of a non-random and a random system. Unlike classical...

Motivated by increment process modeling for two correlated random and non-random systems from a discrete-time asset pricing with both risk free asset and risky security, we propose a class of semi-parametric regressions for a combination of a non-random and a random system. Unlike classical...

Insurers issuing segregated fund policies apply dynamic hedging to mitigate risks related to guarantees embedded in such policies. A typical industry practice consists in using fund mapping regressions to represent basis risk stemming from the imperfect correlation between the underlying fund...

This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the exible quantile regression framework and rely on recently developed...

This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in continuing trend and mean-reversion respectively. The...

The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strike and time to maturity form an Implied Volatility Surface (IVS). Practical applications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamics through a small number of factors. Such dimension reduction is...