We develop a model of gross capital flows and analyze their role in global financial stability. In our model, consistent with the data, when a country experiences asset fire sales, foreign investments exit (fickleness) while domestic investments abroad return home (retrenchment). When countries...

We introduce external risks, in the form of shocks to the level and volatility of world interest rates, into a small open economy model subject to the risk of sudden stops—large recessions together with abrupt reversals in capital inflows| and characterize optimal macroprudential policy in...

It is widely observed that primary commodity prices comove. A parallel literature asserts that correlation risk matters for financial returns. Our novel study connects these topics and presents evidence that commodity correlation risk is both non-constant and important for returns. We reconsider...

While flexible exchange rates facilitate stabilisation, exchange rate fluctuations can cause real volatility. This gives policy importance to the causal relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. An exchange rate may be expected to become more volatile when the...

Using a multi-country regime-switching vector autoregressive (VAR) model we document the existence of two regimes in the volatility of interest rates at which emerging economies borrow from international financial markets, and study the statistical relationship of such regimes with episodes of...

We reexamine the effect of the U.S./Canadian border on integration of markets. The paper updates work from our earlier paper, Engel and Rogers (1996). We consider alternative measures of deviations from the law of one price. We pay special attention to the effect of the U.S.-Canada free trade...

Integration to international capital markets is one of the key pillars of development. However, capital flows also bring volatility to emerging markets. Are there mechanisms to reap the benefits of capital flows without being hurt by their volatility? Are current practices, such as large...

World food prices surged strongly in recent years, with two waves of rising prices in 2007-08 and 2010-11. For food-importing countries affected at the same time by significant levels of undernourishment and malnutrition, sudden rises in the international price of food may have a strong impact...

This paper studies the impact of real exchange rate volatility on firm level investment using data on Indian manufacturing firms. Real exchange rate volatility is found to have a negative impact on firm level investment spending. The impact is non-linear in the level of exchange rate volatility...

This paper studies the impact of real exchange rate volatility on firm level employment using a difference-in-difference model applied on a panel of 900 manufacturing firms. Trade exposure as measured by the difference between the shares of exports and imports in a firm's total revenues and...