We consider which readily observable characteristics of individual stocks (e.g., option implied volatility, accounting data, analyst data) may be used to forecast subsequent extreme price movements. We are the first to explicitly consider the predictive influence of option implied volatility in...

The structure of a firm-commitment Seasoned Equity Offering (SEO) resembles a put option underwritten by an investment bank syndicate. Employing implied volatilities from issuers' stock options as a direct forward-looking measure, this paper examines the impact of expected price risk on the...

Prior literature shows that the implied volatility spread between call and put options is a bullish signal for future returns on the underlying stocks. A common interpretation is that a high call-put implied volatility spread indicates favorable private information revealed by informed option...

Equity option markets exhibit intense trading activity. We use the variability of option implied volatility spread as a proxy for the impounding of new information, and changes in the interpretation of existing information, into option prices. Over the 2006 – 2016 period, we find that the...

Past works have documented the predictive power of short-term stock return momentum and option volume ratios for future stock returns. We find option volume ratios have greater power to predict future returns when evidence prices are out of equilibrium exists, proxied for by increases in implied...

Behavioral theories contend that the human decision-making process tends to both incorporate anchor points and improperly weight low probability events. In this study, we find evidence that equity option market investors anchor to prices and incorporate a probability weighting function similar...