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Spontaneous volatility : fooled by reflexive randomness
Schotanus, Patrick; Schurger, Aaron - In: The journal of behavioral finance : a publication of … 22 (2021) 2, pp. 201-213
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514173
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What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?
Panagiōtidēs, Theodōros; Printzis, Panagiotis - Leibniz-Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung - 2019
We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25000 Greek firms' balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060122
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Explaining electricity forward premiums : evidence for the weather uncertainty effect
Obermüller, Frank - 2017
With the increasing share of volatile renewable energies, weather prediction becomes more important to electricity markets. The weather-driven uncertainty of renewable forecast errors could have price increasing impacts. This research sets up an analytic model to show that the day-ahead optimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011750347
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Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty : the role of speculation in energy price dynamics
Joe͏̈ts, Marc - 2013
This paper proposes to investigate the impact of financialization on energy markets (oil, gas, coal and electricity European forward prices) during both normal times and extreme fluctuation periods through an original behavioral and emotional approach. To this aim, we propose a new theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009737191
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Expectations concordance and stock market volatility : Knightian uncertainty in the year of the pandemic
Frydman, Roman; Mangee, Nicholas - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 14 (2021) 11, pp. 1-13
This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when novel events that are each somewhat unique cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795039
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Quantile Hedging in a Semi-Static Market with Model Uncertainty
Bayraktar, Erhan - 2017
With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the investor minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time, semi-static market of stocks and options. Based on duality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972859
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Two New Risk Metrics : Liquidity Asian Put VaR(TM) and Shortfall(TM) to LIQUIDATION Based on Tail Volatilities & Correlations 'The Need for New Valuation, Risk and Policy Making Mo...
Crousillat, Cesar - 2017
Shortfall – PSF – uses option theory to solve the problem that, under any circumstance, the risk amount is never greater than …This paper derives two new improved risk metrics LAPVaR and LAPSF. Traditional VaRDeltaNormal valuation exaggerates … the portfolio value. Risk to LIQUIDATION means every day-t, a portion of portfolio assets-i, for integer i ϵ (1, N) is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962743
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Tracking global economic uncertainty : implications for the euro area
Bobasu, Alina; Geis, André; Quaglietti, Lucia; Ricci, … - 2021
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
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Good Deal Hedging and Valuation Under Combined Uncertainty About Drift and Volatility
Becherer, Dirk - 2018
for overly attractive reward-to-risk ratios are excluded, by restricting instantaneous Sharpe ratios for any market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934249
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Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty : The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics
Joëts, Marc - 2014
This paper proposes to investigate the impact of financialization on energy markets (oil, gas, coal and electricity European forward prices) during both normal times and extreme fluctuation periods through an original behavioral and emotional approach. To this aim, we propose a new theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064133