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We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191285
dramatic volatility and project values can become negative, this paper presents a generalized framework for solving a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929117
This paper presents a practical volatility estimation method for cash flow simulation based real option valuation with … changing volatility. During cash flow simulation, present value of the future cash flows and their corresponding cash flow … provide all the information required for estimating how the standard deviation and volatility of the stochastic process change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123815
In this paper, we derive optimal hedging strategies for options in electricity futures markets. Optimality is measured in terms of minimal variance and the associated minimal variance hedging portfolios are obtained by a stochastic maximum principle. Our explicit results are particularly useful...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232821
common belief, the auction prices for gas storage are mostly affected by the volatility of current market prices rather than … with the volatility of the spot market. This is an intuitive result because storage capacity can serve as an effective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333083
We analyze the joint cross-section of monthly S&P500 stock index options and monthly CBOE Volatility Index options by … stochastic volatility model and Distributionally Robust Optimization. Significant pricing errors appear if the Stochastic …-of-the-money volatility index puts appears particularly appealing to pure market risk averters. The evidence against option market efficiency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351229
The notion of model-free implied volatility (MFIV), constituting the basis for the highly publicized VIX volatility … more compatible with the related concept of corridor implied volatility (CIV). We provide a comprehensive derivation of the … CIV measure and relate it to MFIV under general assumptions. In addition, we price the various volatility contracts, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014047423
volatility risk. While pointing out the joint pricing kernel is not identified nonparametrically, we propose model-free estimates … of marginal pricing kernels of the market return and volatility conditional on the VIX. We find that the pricing kernel … present a U-shape. Hence, stochastic volatility is the key state variable responsible for the U-shape puzzle documented in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014121051
nature of the answer when the volatility differential is due to the systematic/priced risk. Here the difference in the … direction and magnitude of the net effect depends on the levels of asset beta and volatility and the moneyness and maturity of … nonlinear derivatives, one should pay attention to the source of volatility differential, and the sample range/mix of betas …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968263