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of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are studied in this paper using state-of-the-art TVP-VAR modelling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054782
. With regard to the West German unemployment, the effects of volatility are empirically analysed using three different … cyclical component of the unemployment rate, it can be demonstrated that the whole reported impact solely affects this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001362959
. With regard to the West German unemployment, the effects of volatility are empirically analysed using three different … cyclical component of the unemployment rate, it can be demonstrated that the whole reported impact solely affects this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011294706
We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market. We focus on the uncertainty transmission mechanism, for which we employ a set of worker flow indicators in addition to labor stock variables. We incorporate common factors from such indicators into a framework that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030061
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
We employ a time-varying parameter VAR to examine the dynamic effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894364
Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment … of the 2-year ahead forecast error of the Canadian unemployment rate in periods of slack vs. just 2% during economic … of the latter, lead to a temporary increase in the Canadian unemployment rate. Evidence of asymmetric spillover effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862894
We confirm that standard time-series models for US output growth, inflation, interest rates and stock market returns feature non-Gaussian error structure. We build a 4-variable VAR model where the orthogonolised shocks have a Student t-distribution with a time-varying variance. We find that in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339759
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
We propose an extended time-varying parameter Vector Autoregression that allows for an evolving relationship between the variances of the shocks. Using this model, we show that the relationship between the conditional variance of GDP growth and the long-term interest rate has become weaker over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554403