Exploring the information contained in Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, this analysis investigates the forecasting ability of investor sentiment index in three major precious metal futures markets, namely, Gold, Silver, and Platinum. A strong...

Momentum strategies exhibit rare but dramatic losses (crashes), which we show are a result of the leverage dynamics of stocks in the momentum portfolio. When the economy is in a hidden turbulent state associated with a depressed and volatile stock market, the short-side of the momentum portfolio...