We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a càdlàg nonlinear martingale which is also the value process of a superhedging...

The subprime crisis was quite damaging for hedge funds. Using the local projection method (Jordà 2004, 2005, 2009), we forecast the dynamic responses of the betas of hedge fund strategies to macroeconomic and financial shocks-especially volatility and illiquidity shocks-over the subprime crisis...

We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

In this paper, we explore the use of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) from the field of signal processing to model and estimate the dynamics of multivariate volatilities of financial asset returns in the GARCH framework. The resulting ICA-GARCH approach is shown to provide a computationally...

We test the naive model to forecast ex-ante Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a shrinkage estimator between realized volatility estimated on past return time series, and implied volatility quoted on the market. Implied volatility is often indicated as the operators expectation about future risk, while...

It is well known that the volatility spillover increases when a large economic shock occurs, and then the volatility spillover pattern in the market changes. Accordingly, many papers note that clarifying the time-varying pattern of volatility transmission in domestic and international markets is...

I study the effects of risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices when investors receive information that is difficult to link to fundamentals. I show that the desire of investors to hedge ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia and excess...