structural changes would provide a good empirical description of the classical model of inflation for Spain over this long period …. The principle testable implication is that money growth and inflation are cointegrated, ruling out speculative bubbles in … the Spanish inflation rates. …

power for inflation or, put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset … - consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021 - and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian … likelihoods - provides strong evidence in favour of money growth Granger causing inflation. This strong evidence is, however, not …

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of … consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock and Watson (2007, “Why has US inflation become harder to forecast … Journal of Economics 117, 1295–1328). We introduce timevarying inflation gap persistence into the Stock and Watson (SW …

This paper studies the joint dynamics of real time U.S. inflation and the mean inflation predictions of the Survey of … (UC) model of inflation and a sticky information (SI) prediction mechanism for SPF inflation predictions. We add drifting … gap inflation persistence to a UC model that already has stochastic volatility (SV) afflicting trend and gap inflation …

This paper studies the joint dynamics of real-time U.S. inflation and average inflation predictions of the Survey of … unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky information (SI) prediction mechanism for the SPF predictions. We add … drifting gap inflation persistence to a UC model in which stochastic volatility (SV) affects trend and gap inflation. Another …

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken … (UC) model of inflation and a sticky‐information forecast mechanism. The UC model decomposes inflation into trend and gap … components, and innovations to trend and gap inflation are affected by stochastic volatility. A novelty of our model is to allow …