Historians have suggested there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the UK (and earlier England) in the 13 …th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1914. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and … volatility. The long-horizon forecasts suggest only one inflation wave, that of the 20th century. We also use the model to …

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

Two volatility forecasting evaluation measures are considered; the squared one-day ahead forecast error and its … standardized version. The mean squared forecast error is the widely accepted evaluation function for the realized volatility … forecasting accuracy. Additionally, we explore the forecasting accuracy based on the squared distance of the forecast error …