We examine quarterly oil price forecasts from the Survey of Professional forecasters by the European Central Bank. We find statistical evidence at short forecast horizons that oil price volatility observed ex post explains ex-ante disagreement between oil price forecasters of the ECB's...

Modeling and forecasting crude oil price volatility is crucial in many financial and investment applications. The main purpose of this paper is to review and assess the current state of oil market volatility knowledge. It highlights the properties and characteristics of the oil price volatility...

The uncertainty surrounding the economic growth rate has a social cost, usually determined as the loss of welfare that a representative agent is willing to incur to get rid of fluctuations in his consumption. Though this cost may be negligible in certain economies, this may not be the case for...