We study the effects of political uncertainty on commodity markets from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, commodity prices and inventories decline by 6.6% and 5.7%, respectively, and convenience yields increase by 1.9% in the quarter...

In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common...

The interconnected issues of commodity price fluctuation, unemployment and balance of trade developments are of critical importance in times of globalization. The present paper addresses these issues in terms of a monetary dependent economy macro model that applies to a large class of emerging...

We examine the time-frequency lead-lag relationships and the degree of integration between the US financial stress index and global commodity prices (i.e., oil, gold, silver, and cocoa) with data covering over 47 decades (January 1975 to December 2021). For this purpose, we resort to the bi- and...

This paper examines how speculative futures trading affects commodity markets in terms of price impacts, volatility, and market quality. Contrary to the popular belief that speculators are responsible for the recent commodity price fluctuation, my analysis finds no evidence that speculators...

The financialization view is that increased trading in commodity futures markets is associated with increases in the growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence because in the 2000s trading volume increased sharply and many commodity prices rose and became more...

On the 30th anniversary of the seminal article by Pindyck (1993), we re-evaluate the evidence for the classical rational model of commodity prices, extending it to admit time- varying discount rates, investors’ heterogeneity or both. Discount factors specifications are flexible enough to allow...

The importance of sovereign bond as a source of financing revenue deficit, benchmarking for corporate bonds and debt management in Africa, calls for continual monitoring of its volatility dynamics. This study evaluates the nature of sovereign bond volatility interaction between African countries...

Previous work has established that an appreciation of the real exchange rate (REER) contributes to premature deindustrialization, less productive investment and dependence on commodity booms and busts in emerging markets economies (EME). From the previous literature, it is less clear however...