common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial … production series for the US economy. Our results indicate that common uncertainty and uncertainty linked to nondurable goods … both recorded their pre-pandemic global peaks during the 1973-75 recession. In contrast, durable goods uncertainty recorded …

We study business uncertainty in high- versus low-volatility environments by surveying over 31,000 managers across 41 … countries. We elicit subjective probability distributions for future own-firm sales and measure firm-level uncertainty with … new facts. (1) Subjective uncertainty and realized volatility both decline with GDP per capita. (2) Managers underestimate …