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We identify supply and demand shocks to the real price of natural gas in the Euro Area and the United States. Demand shocks are identified using exogenous temperature variations, while supply shocks are identified through a high-frequency strategy based on an extensive collection of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015408158
Historians have suggested there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the UK (and earlier England) in the 13 …th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1914. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and … volatility. The long-horizon forecasts suggest only one inflation wave, that of the 20th century. We also use the model to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012490912
inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013543029
Examining the economies of the European Union from 2000 to 2023, we have found no strong evidence that the inflation … the euro area, aimed at rapidly bringing inflation under control, could actually be detrimental to economic growth. Since … the negative effects of monetary tightening on growth are clear, while the benefits of rapidly reducing inflation on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015210370
, the Argentine economy transitioned from a low‐ to a high‐inflation regime, while collective bargaining and the minimum … low to high inflation, the monthly frequency of regular‐wage changes almost doubled, while the distribution of regular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014306240
patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771984
The article provides estimates of short-run and medium-run exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices in Russia during the period of 2000–2012 using vector error correction model. Exchange rate pass-through asymmetry estimates, its assessments on different sub-periods and exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398366
Among the harmful effects of inflation, the negative consequences of inflation volatility are of particular concern … inflation volatility. Major results are robust for unconditional and conditional inflation volatility, the latter derived from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636540
Economists generally accept the proposition that high and volatile inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce … societys welfare. Furthermore, studies have shown that inflation is harmful to economic growth. However, determining the causes … econometric techniques, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with both higher inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008554176
the positive correlation between inflation and inflation variability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005422986