Using a unique panel data for rural India for the periods 1999 and 2006 this paper models vulnerability to poverty. We quantify household vulnerability in rural India in 1999 and 2006, investigate the determinants of ex post poverty as well as ex ante vulnerability, assess the role of ex ante...

Using Vulnerability as Expected Utility (VEU) analysis that permits the decomposition of household vulnerability into its components on a unique data set this paper demonstrates that in rural India household vulnerability is most explained by poverty and idiosyncratic components. So far as risk...

What are the root causes of Africa's current state of under-development? Is it the long history of slave trade, or the legacy of extractive colonial institutions, or the fallout of malaria? We investigate the relative contributions of these factors using an instrumental variable approach. The...

Economists have long recognized that a household's well-being depends not just on its average income or expenditure, but also on the risks it faces. Hence vulnerability is a more satisfactory measure of (inadequate) welfare than poverty. We measure vulnerability as expected poverty and establish...

In the extant literature either income or consumption expenditures as measured over short periods of time have been regarded as proxies for the material well-being of households. However, economists have long recognized that a household's sense of well-being depends not just on its average...

This paper analyses the effects of access to Rural Public Works (RPW) and Public Distribution System (PDS), a public food subsidy programme, on consumption poverty, vulnerability and undernutrition in India drawing upon the large household data sets constructed by National Sample Survey (NSS)...

Economists have long recognized that a household's sense of well-being depends not just on its average income or expenditures, but also on the risks it faces. Hence vulnerability is a more satisfactory measure of welfare than poverty. In this paper we measure the extent of vulnerability as...

We examine the profile of poverty and vulnerability in Tajikistan using household level panel data for 2004 and 2005. The drop in poverty was largely due to increase in remittances from workers working overseas. People are more likely to be poor if they live in a) rural areas, b) large...

This paper analyses vulnerability in Fiji, the Kyrgyz republic, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. In incorporating measures of vulnerability there is no major departure from the perspective of MDG 1 Analyses of vulnerability, like that in the present paper, emphasize the fact that the debates around...

This paper measures vulnerability to expected poverty (VEP) an ex-anti measure of well-being for Afghanistan using a single cross-section data. We measure VEP using household consumption expenditure during 2007/08 to predict probability of future consumption being lower than a specific...