Exchange-rate-based stabilisations, even if successful, usually lack credibility initially. This is reflected in high (ex post) real interest rates and some degree of real exchange rate appreciation. Empirical observation suggests that wage inflation declines smoothly over time whilst interest...

A second-generation model of currency crises is combined with a standard model ofbanks as providers of insurance against liquidity risk. In a pegged exchange rateregime, after funds have been committed to the banks, news arrives about the qualityof the banks’ assets and about the exchange rate...