We investigate how college students form and update their beliefs about future earnings using a unique “information” experiment. We provide college students true information about the population distribution of earnings and observe how this information causes respondents to update their...

Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Remarks before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce Annual Convention, Fajardo, Puerto Rico.

Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Remarks at Forecasters Club of New York, New York City.>

This paper examines differences in the skill content of work throughout the United States, ranging from densely populated city centers to isolated and sparsely populated rural areas. To do so, we classify detailed geographic areas into categories along the entire urban-rural hierarchy. An...

We exploit a policy discontinuity at U.S. state borders to identify the effects of unemployment insurance policies on unemployment. Our estimates imply that most of the persistent increase in unemployment during the Great Recession can be accounted for by the unprecedented extensions of...

The limited nature of data on employment referrals in large business and household surveys has so far impeded our efforts to understand the relationships among employment referrals, match quality, wage trajectories, and turnover. Using a new firm-level data set that includes explicit information...

We study one potential source of urban agglomeration economies: better job matching. Focusing on college graduates, we construct two direct measures of job matching based on how well an individual’s job corresponds to his or her college education. Consistent with matching-based theories of...

This paper presents new survey evidence on workers’ response to the 2011 payroll tax cuts. While workers intended to spend 10 to 18 percent of their tax-cut income, they reported actually spending 28 to 43 percent of the funds. This is higher than estimates from studies of recent tax cuts, and...