States over the period January 1978 to December 1997. These estimates are derived from parametric statistical models of …

This Paper Questions the Capacity of the Two Leading Categories of Contract-Based Models of the Business Cycle to Give … Produce Effects of Shocks That Last Longer Than the Contract Length As in the Original Expected Market-Clearing Models. …

forecasting unemployment rates in mind, it seems intuitive that models should reflect this change in structure by incorporating …. Accordingly, this paper evaluates the point forecasts from models of the monthly, aggregate Australian unemployment rate series …; these models being drawn from both the linear and non-linear classes. The non-linear model is based on a standard logistic …