This paper introduces a novel theoretic approach towards understanding election fraud under autocracies, by suggesting a signaling model of election fraud and testing its basic implications on unique datasets from Russian and cross-national settings. According to the theory, the heads of...

This paper uses the tools of election forensics to investigate electoral fraud in the most recent Philippine national elections, 2016. We first focus on digit tests, finite mixture model and its equivalents. We pay particular attention to the measurement of stolen votes and geographic allocation...

This research is designed to explore whether election fraud precinct-level estimates obtained from a finite mixture likelihood model, recently developed by Mebane(2015), can be validated against alternative, more intuitive measures of election fraud. I estimate the precinct-level probabilities...

This study sheds new light on whether public opinion polls, namely, preference falsification, can affect the level of election fraud by employing Kuran's model of preference falsification, which is empirically tested on the data collected from the most recent presidential campaign in Russia...

Although the Russian Presidential election of 2012 is characterized by blatant fraud, the estimates released by major national polling organizations before and after the election showed close correspondence to official results. This fact implies the presence of a potential source of hidden...

Two election forensics methods provide estimates of the magnitude of election fraud: Bayesian version of the finite mixture model developed by Walter Mebane and his students, and nonparametric approach based on vote-turnout histograms proposed by Sergey Shpilkin. While Mebane's approach offers...