This paper uses the tools of election forensics to investigate electoral fraud in the most recent Philippine national elections, 2016. We first focus on digit tests, finite mixture model and its equivalents. We pay particular attention to the measurement of stolen votes and geographic allocation...

This research is designed to explore whether election fraud precinct-level estimates obtained from a finite mixture likelihood model, recently developed by Mebane(2015), can be validated against alternative, more intuitive measures of election fraud. I estimate the precinct-level probabilities...

Two election forensics methods provide estimates of the magnitude of election fraud: Bayesian version of the finite mixture model developed by Walter Mebane and his students, and nonparametric approach based on vote-turnout histograms proposed by Sergey Shpilkin. While Mebane's approach offers...

This paper introduces a novel theoretic approach towards understanding election fraud under autocracies, by suggesting a signaling model of election fraud and testing its basic implications on unique datasets from Russian and cross-national settings. According to the theory, the heads of...