countries between 1989 and 2019. Respondents interviewed in the months preceding election day report significantly lower levels …

voter based upon the primary election type, and (ii) are more likely to establish policy positions that deviate from the …

voting behavior, rather than voting intentions, on a multi-party election on the first round, and validate their predictions … on a two-party election in the final round. They provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data … first round in the most recent election (2014) to demonstrate how the political analyst and consultant can use the vote …